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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still