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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.