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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.